The political landscape of Nigeria crackled with tension as the dust settled on Saturday’s high-stakes by-elections across 16 constituencies, revealing both predictable victories and troubling allegations that could reshape the country’s democratic trajectory.
While the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged as the clear victor with 12 seats secured, the real story unfolded in the angry protests of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), the newly-minted coalition party that suffered a humiliating shutout despite its star-studded membership of political heavyweights.
The electoral map tells its own tale – APC strongholds held firm, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) clung to traditional bases in Ibadan and Adamawa, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) maintained its Kano fortress, while APGA predictably dominated Anambra.
But the ADC’s complete failure to secure a single seat has sparked a firestorm of accusations that threatens to overshadow the entire exercise.
In a scathing Sunday statement, ADC National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi painted a picture of electoral anarchy: ballot boxes snatched at gunpoint, N25.9 million in vote-buying cash intercepted, and opposition candidates allegedly barred from participating under dubious circumstances.
“This isn’t democracy – it’s banditry disguised as voting,” Abdullahi thundered, framing the results as a chilling preview of what Nigerians might expect in the 2027 general elections.
The ADC’s rhetoric carries particular weight given its recent rebranding as the supposed “super alliance” of opposition giants – from Atiku Abubakar to Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi to Nasir El-Rufai.
Their collective failure to make any electoral dent raises existential questions about the coalition’s viability as an APC challenger.
Meanwhile, the APC’s victory lap took on triumphalist tones, with spokesman Felix Morka hailing the results as “a solid endorsement of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.” The ruling party’s narrative of overwhelming public support contrasts sharply with ADC’s claims of systematic voter suppression and institutional complicity.
Even President Tinubu’s congratulatory message praising INEC’s “hitch-free elections” seemed to deliberately ignore the disturbing incidents reported across several states.
As analysts pore over the results, several troubling patterns emerge – the brazen weaponization of incumbency, the normalization of vote-trading, and the apparent impotence of electoral reforms.
With 2027 looming, these by-elections may be remembered less for their immediate outcomes and more as the opening salvo in what promises to be Nigeria’s most fiercely contested political battle in decades.
The ADC’s fiery protests suggest the opposition recognizes the existential stakes – adapt quickly to the new rules of electoral warfare or face permanent irrelevance.
