The landscape of fuel retail in Lagos underwent a sharp shift on Saturday, March 7, 2026, as motorists converged on the few remaining filling stations selling petrol below the ₦1,000 per litre mark. Following a week of global oil volatility, a market survey conducted across the Lagos mainland and island revealed that most private and major retail outlets have now adjusted their pump prices upward, triggering long queues at stations offering relatively cheaper rates.
The structural and economic consequence of this price hike is tied directly to the international market and local refining costs. Earlier this week, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its ex-depot price by ₦100, moving from ₦774 to ₦874 per litre . This adjustment has rapidly rippled through the downstream sector, with major marketers adjusting their retail prices.
| Eterna Plc | ₦1,040 |
| North West Petroleum | ₦1,030 |
| Fatgbems | ₦1,030 |
| Mobil | ~₦1,025 |
| NNPC Limited (Iwaya, Ikoyi) | ₦1,050 |
Even NNPC Limited retail stations in areas like Iwaya and Ikoyi were observed dispensing at ₦1,050 per litre by Saturday noon, signaling that even the state-owned oil company is not immune to the market forces driving prices upward.
Analytically, the primary driver for this surge is the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran military standoff in the Middle East. Global crude prices rallied by nearly 14 percent during the week, surpassing the $80 per barrel threshold.
Energy economists, including Paul Alaje of SPM Professionals, warned that as crude costs rise, the refined costs for PMS, diesel, and aviation fuel inevitably follow. Alaje noted that if the geopolitical conflict is not managed, domestic petrol prices could comfortably settle above the ₦1,000 mark by the end of April.
The conflict has begun to affect broader energy markets beyond crude oil. Following missile and drone strikes across the region and threats to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, European natural gas prices spiked by nearly 40 percent after QatarEnergy reported disruptions to its liquefied natural gas production . These supply shocks are placing immense inflationary pressure on global economies, complicating the efforts of central banks to stabilize prices.
The impact on supply stability and consumer behaviour was evident at stations still selling at legacy rates. Long lines of private and commercial vehicles blocked portions of the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, particularly at MRS stations retailing at ₦937 per litre . Conversely, several TotalEnergies and NNPC stations, including the flagship outlet at OPIC Estate, remained shut or were not dispensing as of early Saturday morning, further compounding the anxiety among motorists .
The disparity in prices has created a two-tier market: those who can afford the wait at cheaper stations and those who must pay the premium at outlets that have already adjusted upward. For commercial transporters, the hike translates directly into increased fares, which will ultimately be borne by consumers across the value chain.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s decision to increase its ex-depot price by ₦100 has been a significant local factor in the price surge. As the largest local refiner, its pricing decisions inevitably influence the entire downstream sector. The ₦874 per litre ex-depot price means that marketers, after adding transport costs, margins, and other expenses, must retail at prices exceeding ₦1,000 to remain profitable.
The long-term outlook for Nigerian fuel prices remains tethered to the stability of the Middle East and the operational capacity of local refineries. As global energy flows face potential blockages, analysts warn that the era of sub-₦1,000 petrol may be drawing to a close . For the average Lagosian, this translates to higher transportation costs and a continued reliance on the few retail outlets that have yet to fully pass on the ₦100 depot price increase to the consumer .
Industry observers note that if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East deteriorates further, crude prices could climb even higher, exerting additional pressure on domestic fuel prices. Conversely, a de-escalation of tensions could see prices stabilize or even retreat, though few analysts are betting on a return to the sub-₦1,000 era anytime soon.
The ripple effects of higher fuel prices extend far beyond the pump. Transportation costs will rise, affecting the prices of goods and services across the economy. Inflation, already a concern for policymakers, could receive an additional upward push. The Central Bank of Nigeria may face renewed pressure to adjust monetary policy in response to these inflationary pressures.
For now, Lagos motorists must navigate a new reality: petrol at over ₦1,000 per litre, long queues at cheaper stations, and an uncertain outlook shaped by forces far beyond Nigeria’s shores.
